THE GLOBAL SYSTEMIC CRISIS: France, the Big Republican Earthquake and its Geopolitical Impact

April 23rd, 2012

A 2012 French election much more important geopolitically than the 2012 US election – Published on open salon.com, by GEAB, April 19, 2012.

… In this communiqué, we have chosen to present an extract dealing with the world geopolitical consequences of the change of power in France.

Indeed, for our team, François Hollande’s victory will start a series of strategic upheavals which will greatly affect Europe and will significantly accelerate the geopolitical changes in progress on a world level since the beginning of the global crisis in 2008.     

Therein, the results and consequences of the French presidential election (5) have much more importance than those of the next American presidential election in November 2012. In fact, France, although being a much less powerful country than the United States, occupies a strategic position both in Europe and on a world level (in particular via its intra-European role) which will make it a key-player in the emergence of the “world after the crisis” to paraphrase the title of Franck Biancheri’s book. And François Hollande’s election, who has clear ideas on Europe and France’s role in Europe and has clearly stated his intention to actively explore partnership possibilities with the new emerging powers (BRICS), will establish a major break with the absence of vision and European strategy of Nicolas Sarkozy’s five years’ presidency, mainly marked by an unprecedented allegiance in the country’s recent history to the dominant US power (6) and its unconditional integration in a Washington/Tel Aviv axis on the major geopolitical problems’ fundamentals (7). France had disappeared in the world these last five years (8); it’s on the point of making a sensational return (9), even beyond the future president’s personality (10).

The impact of François Hollande’s election on global geopolitical transition (2012-2015).

In global terms, LEAP/E2020 makes a point of underlining two outstanding trends which will characterize the first two years of the new French government:

  • France’s assertion of a European-Gaullist policy (or Mitterand- Gaullist), i.e., making independent European foreign policy a strategic priority.
  • The exploration of conceivable relationships with the BRICS at top speed, in particular in a context of a future Euro-BRICS partnership.

François Hollande has remained very discreet as regards foreign policy because, first, it’s not at the centre of French concerns in this election; and because, second, one doesn’t announce material changes in this field in advance.

There are a plethora of arguments for such changes and their implementation isn’t likely to create difficulties in public opinion which, generally, felt betrayed by the Americanist allegiance of the Sarkozy period, in effect there is no reason to hurry. As he announced on the question of France’s reintegration in NATO’s joint military organization (11), it will be based on an objective evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of this decision … (full text and Notes 1 to 13).

Links:

Executive summary: What agenda for a Euro-BRICS summit by 2015? on pravda.ru, 28 June 2011;

EuroBRICS: Un basculement dans l’équilibre du monde
, dans In These New Times, par Jean Paul Baquiast, le 10 février 2012;

China the Savior: BRICS cementing Euro-deals, 3.07 min, par RussiaToday, December 4, 2011;

BRICS Support to Faltering Euro-zone: Finally, Some Ray of Hope, December 1, 2011;

What agenda for a Euro-BRICS summit by 2015? on Europe 2020, May 23-24, 2011;

World crisis: The Path to the World Afterwards;

Announcing the Salon-Alternet Investigative Fund, on open salon.com, April 11, 2012;

Me on Open Salon, on open salon.com, December 19, 2012.

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